Wrapping my head around the core mechanic, getting a sense for your chances of success.
The chance of a d10 hitting a DN 4 is 70%, with advantage it's 1-[(3/10)*(3/10)]= 91%. Importantly, your chance to fumble goes from 10% to 1% if you have advantage. If you don't have advantage but spend Fate to re-roll it's also 91% to succeed. If you simply fail your first attempt and retry, the chance drops to 84% because of fumbles. Your chance to hit with disadvantage drops to 49% on the first try.
To Hit DN 4, straight and with advantage
d4 = 25%, 44%
d6 = 50%, 75%
d8 = 63%, 86%
d10 = 70%, 91%
d12 = 75%, 94%
To Hit DN 8, straight and with advantage
d4 = 6%, 14%
d6 = 14%, 26% (Max)
d8 = 12%, 23%
d10 = 30%, 51%
d12 = 42%, 66%
High chance to whiff, a strong incentive to spend Fate to add your Spirit die if you care about the results.
There is a "Big Chart & A Rabbit Hole" document I created with those numbers. It was my crude pass at the statistical end of it. Seems like our numbers agree which is a shocker as I wasn't entirely sure I got them right. Take a look if so inclined.
Type-A as I may be, from numbers perspective, I focus more on how the game feels than the raw statistical numbers. Meaning, when your skill increases from a d4 to a d6 and then a d8... does it "feel" like your character got markedly better. Or, does your character with a Strength d8 feel like he is stronger than most in play.
Scribe of the Adventure System
